The Role of AI in the 2024 Election: A Game-Changer in Political Campaigns

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has already transformed industries, from healthcare to finance. Now, as we edge closer to the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, it’s clear that AI is poised to revolutionize how campaigns are run and how voters interact with political content. Recently, the Republican National Committee (RNC) used an AI-generated video to criticize Joe Biden, underscoring AI’s potential to reshape elections in unprecedented ways. The speed, accuracy, and reach of AI tools offer new possibilities for political messaging, but they also present new risks, especially concerning misinformation, deepfakes, and the ability to distinguish real from fake content.

The Digital Age of Political Campaigns

We are witnessing a shift in political campaigning from traditional approaches to an era where digital content creation is becoming increasingly sophisticated. No longer are campaigns limited to edited photos or simple video effects. Instead, we’re entering a world where AI can create wholesale digital content in a matter of seconds. This transformation isn’t just a novelty; it’s a fundamental change in how campaigns are conducted, how voters are targeted, and how political narratives are shaped.

Instantaneous Responses with AI

AI has brought about the ability for campaigns to respond in real-time to breaking news or opponent attacks. As political digital director Teddy Goff points out, “Campaigns have had to deal with disinformation and misinformation for a very long time… But obviously, what AI allows is for this stuff to be done more rapidly, perhaps more convincingly, and in a more targeted environment.” AI eliminates the need for days of shooting and editing, allowing teams to produce a campaign video, press release, or social media post in minutes.

One particularly striking example comes from Paul Ingrassia, a political commentator and lawyer based in New York. He described how he used AI to create a viral image of former President Donald Trump emerging from a lion’s den. This image spread rapidly after being shared with Trump campaign staffers and subsequently posted on Trump’s Truth Social account. Ingrassia shared that “the president loved the image,” demonstrating how AI-generated content can play a key role in shaping political messaging.

Microtargeting with AI: Precision in Political Messaging

One of AI’s most powerful attributes is its ability to deliver precise and targeted messaging. In political campaigns, every dollar counts, and campaign teams want to ensure that they are speaking directly to the right voters. Through the analysis of microdata—which includes people’s reading habits, purchasing behavior, and political leanings—AI can identify key voter blocs that are still undecided.

According to a 2024 Emerson College survey,  reveals key trends in the 2024 U.S. presidential race, particularly Donald Trump’s steady support, Joe Biden’s slightly declining popularity, and shifts among independent and demographic groups. Here’s a breakdown of the key findings:

Trump vs. Biden:

• Trump leads Biden in a national matchup with 46% to 43%.
• 11% of voters remain undecided, but when undecided voters are pressed, support for Trump and Biden splits evenly at 50%-50%.
• Trump’s support has remained constant at 46% over the last month, while Biden’s support has dropped two points.

Shifts Among Independent Voters:

• Independent voters have swung toward Trump, breaking 42% to 38% for him in this latest poll. Last month, independents favored Biden 43% to 41%. This shift may indicate a growing dissatisfaction with Biden among swing voters.

Third-Party Candidates:

• With third-party candidates in the race:
  • Trump holds 44%,
  • Biden has 40%,
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 6%,
  • Cornel West and Jill Stein each garner 1% support. This shows third-party candidates are gaining minor but noticeable support, potentially impacting Biden’s voter base more than Trump’s.

Voter Motivation by Demographic:

• Republicans are more motivated than Democrats and Independents, with 78% of Republicans being extremely motivated to vote compared to 65% of Democrats and 63% of independents.
• Racial differences in voter motivation are stark:
  • 79% of white voters are extremely motivated,
  • 53% of Black voters and 49% of Hispanic voters report being extremely motivated.
• Motivation increases significantly with age:
  • Only 39% of those aged 18-29 are extremely motivated, while 91% of those aged 60-69 are highly motivated.

Head-to-Head Comparisons with Other Democrats:

Trump leads against a series of prominent Democrats, reflecting his strength against a broader field:

• Kamala Harris: Trump 49%, Harris 43%
• Bernie Sanders: Trump 48%, Sanders 42%
• Gavin Newsom: Trump 48%, Newsom 40%
• Al Gore: Trump 47%, Gore 42%
• Hillary Clinton: Trump 48%, Clinton 41%
• Elizabeth Warren: Trump 49%, Warren 39%
• Pete Buttigieg: Trump 49%, Buttigieg 39%
• Josh Shapiro: Trump 46%, Shapiro 38%
• Gretchen Whitmer: Trump 48%, Whitmer 38%

Biden’s Approval and Foreign Policy Concerns:

• Biden’s job approval has risen slightly, from 37% to 39%, but his disapproval remains high at 52%.
• A majority of voters (56%) believe U.S. foreign policy is worse than it was four years ago, indicating potential weaknesses in Biden’s foreign policy perception.
  • Among Democrats, 48% think foreign policy is better, while 87% of Republicans and 54% of independents believe it has worsened.

Key Insights:

1. Stable Trump Support: Trump’s support has been consistent at 46% in the last month, indicating a solidified base despite various challenges. His ability to maintain this while Biden loses ground could be crucial heading into the election.
2. Independent Voters Swing to Trump: Biden’s decline in support among independents is noteworthy. This group is critical in national elections, and their shift toward Trump signals a potential vulnerability for Biden, especially if third-party candidates siphon off some of his support.
3. Age-Driven Voter Motivation: Older voters are much more motivated to vote, which could favor Trump, as he has historically done better with older demographics. Conversely, lower motivation among younger voters, a demographic that tends to lean more Democratic, might hurt Biden’s chances.
4. Voter Race and Ethnicity: The disparity in voter motivation among racial groups (especially between white and minority voters) could influence turnout, with Republicans and white voters being more motivated to vote than their counterparts, potentially swinging key states.
5. Head-to-Head Matchups: Trump outperforms every other tested Democrat. Kamala Harris polls closest to Biden, but still trails Trump by six points. This shows Trump’s comparative strength against even high-profile Democrats, which might complicate potential discussions within the Democratic Party of replacing Biden as the nominee.

AI provides the means to fine-tune messaging and target those voters with precision. By doing this, campaigners can craft tailored appeals that nudge undecided voters toward their preferred candidate.

Democratizing Political Disinformation

AI is not only transforming professional campaigns but also giving everyday citizens the tools to become political content creators. Unlike in the past, when troll farms and disinformation campaigns required teams of experts, AI allows anyone with basic digital skills to create convincing political messages. This democratization of political disinformation means that the barrier to entry for influencing voters is lower than ever before.

For instance, using deepfake technology, a person could create a fake video or audio clip of a candidate saying something controversial. This type of disinformation could easily spread across social media platforms, contributing to the polarization of voters and creating confusion about the authenticity of political messages.

In the past, disinformation campaigns required careful planning and expert execution. Now, AI tools allow for the instant generation of memes, videos, and articles, with the potential to influence millions of people in an instant.

The Wild West of AI in Campaigning: Few Guardrails, No Disclosure Requirements

One of the most significant concerns with the rise of AI in politics is the lack of regulation around its use. Campaign speech is considered protected speech under U.S. law, meaning that candidates and their supporters can say and do almost anything without facing legal consequences. Even if the content they produce is demonstrably false, the legal system offers few remedies to those targeted by disinformation.

For example, although the RNC disclosed that it used AI to create its recent video criticizing Biden, there is no requirement for campaigns to disclose the use of AI-generated content. The Federal Election Commission (FEC) does not currently mandate that campaigns distinguish between real and AI-generated materials. Without such guardrails, voters may struggle to determine what is real and what is manufactured.

This lack of transparency could lead to a wild west of AI-generated political content, where deepfakes, false narratives, and targeted disinformation flood social media. Without regulations, voters will have limited means of distinguishing between authentic campaign materials and AI-generated fakes.

The Global Reach of AI-Generated Disinformation

The use of AI-generated content in political campaigns is not limited to the United States. Around the world, political operatives have been deploying AI to influence elections. For example, in Slovakia last year, AI audio clips impersonating a liberal party leader discussing vote rigging were circulated just days before the election. Similarly, in Indonesia and the Netherlands, AI has been used to create fake videos designed to sway voters.

The consequences of these AI-generated disinformation campaigns can be severe. Voters in New Hampshire’s primary earlier this year received robocalls with AI-generated audio clips impersonating President Biden, urging them not to vote. Although the incident resulted in criminal charges, it serves as a stark reminder of the potential for AI to be used for more sinister purposes in political campaigns.

Case Study: AI-Generated Content in Political Satire

In some cases, AI-generated content is used for satirical purposes, creating humorous or absurd images that capture the attention of social media users. For instance, a video of Trump riding a cat while wielding an assault rifle or Vice President Kamala Harris dressed in communist attire has made rounds on the internet. Although these images and videos are often shared in jest, they still contribute to the overall mistrust in political content.

Even these seemingly innocuous pieces of satire can influence voters, especially when emotions are high during an election cycle. A well-timed meme or viral image can help shape public perception, regardless of its accuracy.

Table 1: AI’s Impact on Political Campaigning

The Future of Political Campaigns with AI

As 2024 approaches, it is clear that AI will continue to play a central role in political campaigns. The ability to create and disseminate content quickly, target voters precisely, and generate satirical or disinformation-based materials will all have profound impacts on the democratic process.

However, without adequate regulation or disclosure requirements, the risks of AI in politics far outweigh the benefits. Voters need to be aware of the potential for AI to shape their perceptions and should demand transparency from campaigns about the use of AI-generated content.

Table 2: Key Challenges Posed by AI in Elections

Conclusion: AI in the 2024 US Election

AI is reshaping political campaigns in ways we could have never imagined just a few years ago. From instant response times to targeted disinformation, the technology presents both exciting opportunities and daunting challenges. As we move forward, it is crucial that voters, politicians, and regulators alike are aware of the profound impact AI will have on the democratic process.

“Campaigns have to keep up with AI, or they will be left behind. But the more we use AI, the more we need to think critically about the consequences for democracy.” – Teddy Goff, digital director of Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign.

Without proper guardrails, the 2024 election could be a testing ground for AI’s potential, both good and bad. Vigilance, awareness, and transparency will be essential to ensure that AI enhances, rather than undermines, the democratic process.

References

1. Emerson College Survey, 2024.
2. Washington Post, “AI in Political Campaigns.”

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